The Market · Updated automatically every weekday morning
Where rates are coming from this week.
Last updated October 7, 2026 · figures from the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
10-year Treasury
5.27%
Official close, October 6, 2026. essentially unchanged from a week ago.
Where it sits
Upper end
Of its one-year range, 3.97% to 5.31%.
Inflation (CPI)
3.7%
Year over year. Feeds directly into the Fed’s next decision.
These figures are more than a week old and may no longer reflect the market. Get in touch for a current read.
The 10-year Treasury — the benchmark that mortgage pricing tends to follow — closed at 5.27% on October 6, 2026, essentially unchanged from a week ago.
Over the past year it has traded between 3.97% and 5.31%, so it currently sits toward the upper end of that range. The yield curve is normally sloped, with 2-year notes yielding less than 10-year notes.
Inflation is running at 3.7% year over year and unemployment at 4.2%. Both feed directly into the Federal Reserve’s next decision.
Official close, October 6, 2026
Inflation (CPI)
3.7%
Year over year
Unemployment
4.2%
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Yield curve
Normal
10-yr yields 0.48% more than 2-yr
What moves the market this week
The dates that move bond prices, and with them mortgage pricing.
Only the scheduled releases that matter: the Fed’s decision, the inflation report, the jobs report and producer prices. Nothing else makes this list.
No high-impact release is scheduled in the next two weeks.
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Market data from the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Provided for general information only. Treasury yields are not mortgage rates and this page is not a quote, an offer, or a commitment to lend.